| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Auburn | 24-38 | 1647.8 | -64.3 | 1583.5 | 69.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | SMU | 48-45 | 1583.5 | +65.9 | 1649.4 | 28.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Samford | 42-7 | 1649.4 | +0.0 | 1649.4 | 70.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Arizona State | 24-27 | 1649.4 | -43.2 | 1606.2 | 42.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 45-27 | 1606.2 | +19.0 | 1625.2 | 82.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Kansas State | 35-34 | 1625.2 | +30.9 | 1656.1 | 56.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | TCU | 36-42 | 1656.1 | -35.5 | 1620.6 | 49.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 20-41 | 1620.6 | -37.7 | 1582.9 | 52.3% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UCF | 30-3 | 1582.9 | +20.5 | 1603.4 | 69.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Utah | 28-55 | 1603.4 | -38.9 | 1564.5 | 38.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Arizona | 17-41 | 1564.5 | -27.5 | 1537.0 | 39.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Houston | 24-31 | 1537.0 | -46.5 | 1490.5 | 46.7% |