| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 2026 | W | UAlbany | 21-17 | 1415.3 | -17.3 | 1398.0 | 67.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Florida International | 20-33 | 1398.0 | -23.8 | 1374.2 | 38.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Penn State | 13-55 | 1374.2 | -8.7 | 1365.5 | 2.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Robert Morris | 31-28 | 1365.5 | -38.0 | 1327.5 | 91.3% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Western Michigan | 17-20 | 1327.5 | +34.1 | 1361.6 | 10.4% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Toledo | 23-8 | 1361.6 | +67.1 | 1428.8 | 8.2% |