| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Minnesota | 10-23 | 1464.5 | +38.2 | 1502.7 | 9.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | St. Francis (PA) | 45-6 | 1502.7 | +29.6 | 1532.3 | 96.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Kent State | 31-28 | 1532.3 | -68.3 | 1464.0 | 93.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Troy | 17-21 | 1464.0 | -21.8 | 1442.2 | 47.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | UConn | 17-20 | 1442.2 | +3.7 | 1445.9 | 31.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 31-30 | 1445.9 | -19.7 | 1426.2 | 74.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 28-21 | 1442.9 | -4.7 | 1438.2 | 85.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Akron | 16-24 | 1438.2 | -47.3 | 1390.9 | 76.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 28-3 | 1390.9 | +51.0 | 1441.9 | 46.4% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 19-38 | 1444.7 | -38.8 | 1405.9 | 54.8% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 20-37 | 1405.9 | -21.2 | 1384.7 | 32.4% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Ohio | 26-31 | 1384.7 | +8.7 | 1393.4 | 24.1% |