| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Nebraska | 17-20 | 1725.9 | +3.8 | 1729.7 | 39.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 34-20 | 1729.7 | +23.0 | 1752.7 | 80.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Northwestern State | 70-0 | 1752.7 | +56.7 | 1809.4 | 99.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Kansas | 37-34 | 1803.1 | +18.7 | 1821.8 | 41.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Iowa State | 38-30 | 1821.8 | +19.8 | 1841.6 | 40.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | UCF | 20-11 | 1841.6 | -3.7 | 1837.9 | 63.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 49-17 | 1837.9 | +17.2 | 1855.1 | 93.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Baylor | 41-20 | 1855.1 | +15.6 | 1870.7 | 60.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Utah | 14-45 | 1870.7 | -42.5 | 1828.2 | 28.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Arizona | 24-30 | 1826.4 | -17.9 | 1808.5 | 50.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | BYU | 14-26 | 1808.5 | -14.8 | 1793.7 | 25.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | TCU | 23-45 | 1793.7 | -29.7 | 1764.0 | 49.9% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | L | Navy | 13-35 | 1759.6 | -48.4 | 1711.2 | 65.2% |