| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Boston College | 34-15 | 1622.3 | +21.3 | 1643.6 | 71.4% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Western Carolina | 62-10 | 1643.6 | +33.7 | 1677.3 | 97.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Miami (OH) | 35-31 | 1677.3 | -58.1 | 1619.2 | 87.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Kansas State | 31-26 | 1619.2 | +34.7 | 1654.0 | 25.5% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | L | Arizona | 7-34 | 1654.0 | -35.2 | 1618.7 | 41.0% |