| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | LSU | 10-51 | 1643.2 | -76.8 | 1566.4 | 17.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Georgia Southern | 22-7 | 1566.4 | +56.6 | 1623.0 | 75.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | North Carolina | 28-20 | 1623.0 | -2.5 | 1620.5 | 55.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | California | 24-10 | 1620.5 | +26.9 | 1647.4 | 65.1% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Miami | 13-41 | 1647.4 | -14.2 | 1633.3 | 11.7% |