| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Delaware State | 35-17 | 1500.0 | +0.0 | 1500.0 | 50.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Colorado | 7-31 | 1500.0 | -31.8 | 1468.2 | 45.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | UConn | 44-41 | 1468.2 | +26.8 | 1495.0 | 61.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Florida International | 38-16 | 1495.0 | +18.3 | 1513.3 | 83.3% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 24-27 | 1513.3 | -47.5 | 1465.8 | 48.0% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 25-38 | 1465.8 | -37.6 | 1428.2 | 52.1% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 31-28 | 1428.2 | +11.0 | 1439.2 | 83.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Liberty | 30-59 | 1439.2 | -41.3 | 1397.9 | 56.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 25-24 | 1397.9 | +24.2 | 1422.1 | 64.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Sam Houston | 23-26 | 1422.1 | -54.4 | 1367.7 | 71.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Wake Forest | 14-52 | 1367.7 | -16.7 | 1351.0 | 25.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UTEP | 61-31 | 1351.0 | +11.5 | 1362.5 | 82.3% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | W | Louisiana | 20-13 | 1362.5 | +55.5 | 1418.0 | 34.7% |