| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Fresno State | 31-7 | 1719.5 | +109.3 | 1828.8 | 67.6% |
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Wagner | 46-7 | 1828.8 | -15.8 | 1813.0 | 99.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Missouri | 31-42 | 1813.0 | -3.8 | 1809.2 | 32.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | West Virginia | 41-10 | 1823.6 | +40.7 | 1864.3 | 66.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 34-37 | 1864.3 | -32.8 | 1831.5 | 58.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UCF | 27-20 | 1831.5 | +15.4 | 1846.9 | 58.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 17-42 | 1846.9 | -36.4 | 1810.5 | 29.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Kansas State | 17-42 | 1812.3 | -53.8 | 1758.5 | 51.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 38-21 | 1758.5 | -10.2 | 1748.3 | 91.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Arizona | 20-24 | 1748.3 | +3.7 | 1752.0 | 38.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Iowa State | 14-38 | 1757.0 | -28.3 | 1728.7 | 40.2% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Utah | 21-31 | 1728.7 | +8.0 | 1736.7 | 14.1% |