| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Long Island University | 51-6 | 1673.2 | -31.1 | 1642.0 | 98.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Missouri | 21-38 | 1642.0 | -35.3 | 1606.7 | 34.7% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Arizona State | 17-24 | 1606.7 | -6.7 | 1600.0 | 36.1% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Middle Tennessee | 55-0 | 1603.8 | +65.6 | 1669.4 | 85.6% |
| 6 | Oct 11 2026 | L | Utah | 24-41 | 1669.4 | +12.5 | 1681.9 | 13.3% |