| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Fresno State | 31-7 | 1463.5 | +146.4 | 1609.9 | 45.2% |
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Wagner | 46-7 | 1609.9 | +0.0 | 1609.9 | 65.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Missouri | 31-42 | 1609.9 | -16.7 | 1593.2 | 25.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | West Virginia | 41-10 | 1593.2 | +32.6 | 1625.8 | 54.0% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 34-37 | 1625.8 | -68.6 | 1557.2 | 75.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UCF | 27-20 | 1557.2 | +36.0 | 1593.2 | 65.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 17-42 | 1593.2 | -22.9 | 1570.3 | 33.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Kansas State | 17-42 | 1570.3 | -44.8 | 1525.5 | 44.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 38-21 | 1525.5 | +11.5 | 1537.0 | 82.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Arizona | 20-24 | 1537.0 | -34.2 | 1502.8 | 48.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Iowa State | 14-38 | 1502.8 | -19.2 | 1483.6 | 28.7% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Utah | 21-31 | 1483.6 | -19.4 | 1464.2 | 17.7% |