| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Georgia | 7-45 | 1650.4 | -6.6 | 1643.8 | 10.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Missouri State | 20-21 | 1643.8 | -65.3 | 1578.5 | 70.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Eastern Kentucky | 38-7 | 1578.5 | +0.0 | 1578.5 | 61.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 42-28 | 1578.5 | +12.0 | 1590.5 | 89.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Louisiana | 51-54 | 1590.5 | -62.0 | 1528.5 | 78.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Old Dominion | 48-24 | 1528.5 | +35.4 | 1563.9 | 50.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Texas State | 40-37 | 1563.9 | +19.2 | 1583.1 | 71.3% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 27-44 | 1583.1 | -53.1 | 1530.0 | 69.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | James Madison | 23-35 | 1530.0 | -32.0 | 1498.0 | 30.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Georgia State | 30-18 | 1498.0 | +12.7 | 1510.7 | 88.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | App State | 24-26 | 1510.7 | -58.1 | 1452.6 | 74.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 19-24 | 1452.6 | -52.7 | 1399.9 | 54.3% |