| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 2026 | W | Rutgers | 37-21 | 1381.1 | +31.4 | 1412.5 | 14.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Sacred Heart | 37-10 | 1412.5 | +21.6 | 1434.1 | 74.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Stonehill | 36-14 | 1434.1 | +5.9 | 1440.0 | 83.4% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | W | Sacramento State | 35-6 | 1440.0 | +41.0 | 1481.0 | 55.7% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Eastern Michigan | 14-38 | 1481.0 | -77.3 | 1403.7 | 61.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Miami (OH) | 19-20 | 1403.7 | -8.0 | 1395.7 | 27.6% |