| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | VMI | 52-7 | 1682.3 | +42.2 | 1724.5 | 97.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UAB | 38-24 | 1724.5 | -19.8 | 1704.7 | 86.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Tulsa | 42-23 | 1704.7 | +5.6 | 1710.3 | 87.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Rice | 21-13 | 1719.5 | -28.3 | 1691.2 | 82.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Air Force | 34-31 | 1691.2 | -41.5 | 1649.7 | 79.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Temple | 32-31 | 1649.7 | -18.2 | 1631.5 | 70.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 42-32 | 1644.1 | -9.4 | 1634.7 | 82.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | North Texas | 17-31 | 1634.7 | -18.4 | 1616.3 | 33.1% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 10-49 | 1616.3 | -15.8 | 1600.5 | 6.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | South Florida | 41-38 | 1600.5 | +26.3 | 1626.8 | 20.8% |
| 15 | Nov 27 2025 | W | Memphis | 28-17 | 1632.9 | +29.2 | 1662.1 | 37.8% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | W | Army | 17-16 | 1660.0 | -6.7 | 1653.3 | 62.7% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | W | Cincinnati | 35-13 | 1650.2 | +44.4 | 1694.6 | 34.8% |