| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Towson | 42-15 | 1537.7 | +42.4 | 1580.0 | 90.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Florida Atlantic | 30-38 | 1580.0 | -74.3 | 1505.7 | 82.4% |
| 4 | Sep 25 2026 | L | UAB | 20-24 | 1507.1 | +16.0 | 1523.0 | 70.4% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Air Force | 9-14 | 1523.0 | -9.1 | 1514.0 | 57.4% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Tulsa | 34-26 | 1514.0 | +13.5 | 1527.5 | 53.1% |