| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Penn State | 11-46 | 1457.4 | -9.1 | 1448.3 | 3.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Sacramento State | 20-17 | 1448.3 | -17.9 | 1430.4 | 61.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Middle Tennessee | 13-14 | 1430.4 | -42.6 | 1387.8 | 76.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 16-31 | 1387.8 | -23.9 | 1363.9 | 35.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Fresno State | 17-20 | 1364.8 | +25.9 | 1390.7 | 18.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | San Diego State | 10-44 | 1390.7 | -67.0 | 1323.7 | 23.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | New Mexico | 22-24 | 1323.7 | +22.6 | 1346.3 | 21.6% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | L | Boise State | 3-24 | 1346.3 | +5.3 | 1351.6 | 7.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Utah State | 14-51 | 1354.9 | -53.5 | 1301.4 | 28.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | San José State | 55-10 | 1301.4 | +95.9 | 1397.3 | 23.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Wyoming | 13-7 | 1397.3 | +30.8 | 1428.1 | 37.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | UNLV | 17-42 | 1428.1 | -26.0 | 1402.1 | 20.7% |