| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Western Kentucky | 49-14 | 1465.3 | +87.2 | 1552.5 | 56.1% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | L | Montana State | 7-20 | 1552.5 | -59.7 | 1492.8 | 81.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Middle Tennessee | 20-27 | 1492.8 | -20.2 | 1472.6 | 62.2% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | Air Force | 33-36 | 1472.6 | -23.0 | 1449.5 | 39.3% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | UTEP | 30-13 | 1439.3 | +20.6 | 1460.0 | 79.9% |