| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Rutgers | 31-34 | 1608.1 | +34.8 | 1642.9 | 26.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | West Virginia | 17-10 | 1642.9 | +34.5 | 1677.4 | 41.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Ohio State | 9-37 | 1677.4 | -5.8 | 1671.6 | 7.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Gardner-Webb | 52-35 | 1671.6 | -49.7 | 1621.9 | 95.5% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 35-20 | 1621.9 | +11.4 | 1633.3 | 66.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Ball State | 14-20 | 1633.3 | -41.3 | 1592.0 | 89.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 48-21 | 1589.0 | +20.6 | 1609.6 | 72.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 28-21 | 1609.6 | -12.4 | 1597.2 | 85.1% |
| 12 | Nov 4 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 24-20 | 1595.7 | -4.4 | 1591.3 | 56.2% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 13-17 | 1591.3 | -3.8 | 1587.5 | 58.8% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 42-14 | 1587.5 | -3.7 | 1583.8 | 95.9% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Buffalo | 31-26 | 1583.8 | -6.9 | 1576.9 | 75.9% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | W | UNLV | 17-10 | 1585.2 | +15.6 | 1600.8 | 39.4% |