| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Nebraska | 21-49 | 1510.9 | -60.7 | 1450.2 | 7.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Jacksonville State | 29-27 | 1450.2 | +22.7 | 1472.9 | 58.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | South Alabama | 36-41 | 1472.9 | +1.1 | 1474.0 | 51.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Stonehill | 35-7 | 1474.0 | +4.6 | 1478.6 | 94.8% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Kent State | 13-10 | 1478.6 | -22.4 | 1456.2 | 83.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Central Michigan | 31-14 | 1456.2 | +19.0 | 1475.2 | 62.9% |