| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | UTEP | 51-0 | 1757.3 | +61.4 | 1818.7 | 98.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Michigan | 10-17 | 1818.7 | -29.2 | 1789.5 | 69.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | New Mexico | 14-6 | 1789.5 | -16.1 | 1773.4 | 85.6% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Georgia | 13-41 | 1773.4 | -28.6 | 1744.8 | 25.6% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Texas | 27-24 | 1744.1 | +25.6 | 1769.7 | 21.8% |