| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Louisiana | 14-12 | 1501.7 | +30.2 | 1531.9 | 41.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Houston | 9-35 | 1531.9 | -73.2 | 1458.7 | 29.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Prairie View A&M | 38-17 | 1458.7 | -19.8 | 1438.9 | 94.8% |
| 5 | Sep 18 2025 | W | Charlotte | 28-17 | 1438.9 | +8.3 | 1447.2 | 73.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Navy | 13-21 | 1447.2 | +18.9 | 1466.1 | 17.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Florida Atlantic | 21-27 | 1466.1 | -45.0 | 1421.1 | 69.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | UTSA | 13-61 | 1421.1 | -67.0 | 1354.1 | 30.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | UConn | 37-34 | 1341.3 | +34.5 | 1375.8 | 14.4% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | L | Memphis | 14-38 | 1375.8 | -11.2 | 1364.6 | 10.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | UAB | 24-17 | 1364.6 | +9.6 | 1374.2 | 49.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | North Texas | 24-56 | 1376.4 | -16.3 | 1360.1 | 9.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | South Florida | 3-52 | 1360.1 | -33.4 | 1326.7 | 6.1% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | L | Texas State | 10-41 | 1323.0 | -21.6 | 1301.4 | 16.4% |