| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Houston Christian | 31-3 | 1437.9 | -5.3 | 1432.6 | 93.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Notre Dame | 0-52 | 1432.6 | -43.0 | 1389.7 | 1.3% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Western Michigan | 21-28 | 1389.7 | +50.1 | 1439.8 | 11.6% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | Fresno State | 24-38 | 1439.8 | +3.2 | 1442.9 | 17.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | UTSA | 14-16 | 1442.9 | +17.4 | 1460.3 | 11.5% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | East Carolina | 12-28 | 1460.3 | -6.7 | 1453.7 | 27.6% |