| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Texas State | 59-7 | 1844.5 | +79.7 | 1924.2 | 92.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Ohio State | 24-23 | 1924.2 | -27.8 | 1896.4 | 44.4% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | UTSA | 30-6 | 1896.4 | +6.8 | 1903.2 | 92.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Tennessee | 20-17 | 1903.2 | -13.7 | 1889.5 | 72.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Oklahoma | 24-27 | 1884.7 | -36.8 | 1847.9 | 78.2% |