| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Northwestern | 23-3 | 1658.4 | +71.5 | 1729.9 | 46.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | South Alabama | 33-31 | 1729.9 | -18.4 | 1711.5 | 76.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Duke | 34-27 | 1711.5 | -0.8 | 1710.7 | 64.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 10-45 | 1710.7 | -51.9 | 1658.8 | 12.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Tulsa | 31-14 | 1658.8 | +23.1 | 1681.9 | 82.6% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | East Carolina | 26-19 | 1689.0 | +7.0 | 1696.0 | 46.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Army | 24-17 | 1696.0 | -5.8 | 1690.2 | 67.9% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | L | UTSA | 26-48 | 1692.2 | -44.6 | 1647.6 | 64.0% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | W | Memphis | 38-32 | 1647.6 | +17.2 | 1664.8 | 35.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 35-24 | 1664.8 | -6.8 | 1658.0 | 81.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Temple | 37-13 | 1658.0 | +29.3 | 1687.3 | 72.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Charlotte | 27-0 | 1687.3 | -3.7 | 1683.6 | 93.4% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | North Texas | 34-21 | 1683.6 | +25.2 | 1708.8 | 32.7% |
| 18 | Dec 20 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 10-41 | 1708.6 | -22.9 | 1685.7 | 13.9% |