| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Duke | 3-17 | 1555.6 | +6.2 | 1561.7 | 22.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | South Alabama | 28-24 | 1561.7 | -0.4 | 1561.3 | 66.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Kansas State | 20-31 | 1561.3 | +27.4 | 1588.7 | 10.2% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Southern Miss | 24-21 | 1588.7 | -20.5 | 1568.2 | 81.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Army | 17-20 | 1564.6 | -1.6 | 1562.9 | 38.7% |