| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Utah State | 16-28 | 1314.1 | -2.2 | 1311.9 | 27.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UT Martin | 42-17 | 1311.9 | +50.4 | 1362.3 | 78.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Texas | 10-27 | 1362.3 | +70.6 | 1432.9 | 2.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | UL Monroe | 25-31 | 1432.9 | -47.1 | 1385.8 | 71.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 11-30 | 1385.8 | -29.9 | 1355.9 | 31.9% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | L | Liberty | 8-19 | 1346.1 | -34.9 | 1311.2 | 36.6% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 35-17 | 1311.2 | +33.0 | 1344.2 | 56.6% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 20-33 | 1335.9 | -5.4 | 1330.5 | 34.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 27-30 | 1330.5 | +10.7 | 1341.2 | 28.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Missouri State | 24-38 | 1341.2 | -20.4 | 1320.8 | 40.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | New Mexico State | 31-34 | 1320.8 | -10.6 | 1310.2 | 52.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Delaware | 31-61 | 1310.2 | -47.3 | 1262.9 | 53.4% |