| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | UT Rio Grande Valley | 45-16 | 1605.3 | +7.7 | 1613.0 | 93.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Texas State | 31-26 | 1613.0 | -39.5 | 1573.6 | 70.7% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | L | Texas | 6-30 | 1573.6 | +15.2 | 1588.8 | 7.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Colorado State | 59-45 | 1588.8 | +35.0 | 1623.8 | 71.3% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Rice | 16-14 | 1623.8 | -33.4 | 1590.4 | 88.5% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | W | South Florida | 31-24 | 1590.4 | +8.5 | 1598.9 | 54.8% |