| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Texas A&M | 24-42 | 1624.2 | +0.6 | 1624.8 | 15.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas State | 36-43 | 1624.8 | -31.8 | 1593.0 | 44.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Incarnate Word | 48-20 | 1593.0 | +2.9 | 1595.9 | 94.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Colorado State | 17-16 | 1595.9 | -0.3 | 1595.6 | 65.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Temple | 21-27 | 1587.4 | -26.4 | 1561.0 | 64.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Rice | 61-13 | 1561.0 | +99.4 | 1660.4 | 69.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | North Texas | 17-55 | 1660.4 | -72.0 | 1588.4 | 49.0% |
| 11 | Oct 30 2025 | W | Tulane | 48-26 | 1592.0 | +39.2 | 1631.2 | 36.0% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | L | South Florida | 23-55 | 1631.2 | -38.7 | 1592.5 | 27.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Charlotte | 28-7 | 1592.5 | +9.0 | 1601.5 | 90.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | East Carolina | 58-24 | 1601.5 | +64.9 | 1666.4 | 33.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Army | 24-27 | 1666.4 | -16.7 | 1649.7 | 66.8% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | W | Florida International | 57-20 | 1640.6 | +49.4 | 1690.0 | 76.3% |