| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | UCLA | 43-10 | 1719.2 | +143.9 | 1863.1 | 47.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Cal Poly | 63-9 | 1863.1 | +45.9 | 1909.0 | 97.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Wyoming | 31-6 | 1909.0 | +2.4 | 1911.4 | 90.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 10-34 | 1911.4 | -81.9 | 1829.5 | 53.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | West Virginia | 48-14 | 1829.5 | +66.6 | 1896.1 | 75.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Arizona State | 42-10 | 1907.9 | +69.4 | 1977.3 | 58.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | BYU | 21-24 | 1977.3 | -11.4 | 1965.9 | 53.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Colorado | 53-7 | 1965.9 | +61.2 | 2027.1 | 77.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 45-14 | 2027.1 | +31.3 | 2058.4 | 71.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Baylor | 55-28 | 2051.3 | +23.9 | 2075.2 | 80.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Kansas State | 51-47 | 2075.2 | -32.8 | 2042.4 | 82.9% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Kansas | 31-21 | 2042.4 | -16.5 | 2025.9 | 85.9% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | W | Nebraska | 44-22 | 2011.7 | +3.4 | 2015.1 | 79.5% |