| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | UCLA | 43-10 | 1487.8 | +58.9 | 1546.7 | 37.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Cal Poly | 63-9 | 1546.7 | +0.0 | 1546.7 | 56.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Wyoming | 31-6 | 1546.7 | +33.1 | 1579.8 | 68.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 10-34 | 1579.8 | -42.7 | 1537.1 | 42.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | West Virginia | 48-14 | 1537.1 | +48.7 | 1585.8 | 50.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Arizona State | 42-10 | 1585.8 | +58.3 | 1644.1 | 25.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | BYU | 21-24 | 1644.1 | -19.5 | 1624.6 | 29.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Colorado | 53-7 | 1624.6 | +28.6 | 1653.2 | 59.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 45-14 | 1653.2 | +34.6 | 1687.8 | 51.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Baylor | 55-28 | 1687.8 | +38.9 | 1726.7 | 61.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Kansas State | 51-47 | 1726.7 | +24.1 | 1750.8 | 64.8% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Kansas | 31-21 | 1750.8 | +19.3 | 1770.1 | 82.3% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | W | Nebraska | 44-22 | 1770.1 | +19.9 | 1790.0 | 76.7% |