| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | L | Notre Dame | 13-41 | 1722.2 | -107.2 | 1615.0 | 12.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Western Illinois | 36-9 | 1615.0 | -11.5 | 1603.6 | 97.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Eastern Michigan | 54-10 | 1603.6 | +63.7 | 1667.3 | 87.3% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Penn State | 24-20 | 1667.3 | +43.1 | 1710.4 | 20.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Michigan State | 31-3 | 1710.4 | +28.7 | 1739.2 | 62.1% |