| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 17-0 | 1506.0 | +45.3 | 1551.3 | 39.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 42-10 | 1551.3 | +6.3 | 1557.6 | 90.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Alabama | 14-38 | 1557.6 | -13.2 | 1544.4 | 20.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Maryland | 10-27 | 1544.4 | -56.0 | 1488.4 | 58.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Michigan | 10-24 | 1488.4 | -6.0 | 1482.4 | 9.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Iowa | 0-37 | 1482.4 | -27.3 | 1455.1 | 25.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Ohio State | 0-34 | 1455.1 | -2.4 | 1452.7 | 2.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Oregon | 7-21 | 1452.7 | -3.0 | 1449.7 | 4.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Washington | 13-10 | 1449.7 | +70.2 | 1519.9 | 13.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Indiana | 7-31 | 1519.9 | -5.6 | 1514.3 | 8.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Illinois | 27-10 | 1514.3 | +63.6 | 1577.9 | 19.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Minnesota | 7-17 | 1577.9 | -32.2 | 1545.7 | 45.6% |