| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Tarleton State | 27-30 | 1630.0 | -100.7 | 1529.3 | 90.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Kansas State | 24-21 | 1529.3 | +67.9 | 1597.2 | 19.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | North Texas | 38-45 | 1596.9 | -9.7 | 1587.2 | 32.1% |
| 6 | Sep 25 2025 | L | East Carolina | 6-28 | 1587.2 | -33.2 | 1554.0 | 35.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UAB | 31-13 | 1554.0 | +28.7 | 1582.7 | 72.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Charlotte | 24-7 | 1582.7 | -16.9 | 1565.8 | 87.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Tulane | 17-24 | 1565.8 | +12.4 | 1578.2 | 32.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Air Force | 20-17 | 1584.5 | -0.5 | 1584.0 | 60.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Temple | 14-13 | 1584.0 | -8.0 | 1576.0 | 63.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Tulsa | 25-26 | 1572.4 | -27.8 | 1544.6 | 77.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UTSA | 27-24 | 1544.6 | +24.5 | 1569.1 | 33.2% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | L | Navy | 16-17 | 1570.1 | +5.8 | 1575.9 | 37.3% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | UConn | 41-16 | 1571.1 | +50.6 | 1621.7 | 42.9% |