| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | L | UCLA | 24-45 | 1565.0 | -39.7 | 1525.3 | 11.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Syracuse | 21-18 | 1525.3 | +55.5 | 1580.8 | 33.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Wagner | 49-7 | 1580.8 | -13.0 | 1567.8 | 99.5% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Clemson | 10-24 | 1567.8 | -7.4 | 1560.4 | 34.9% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | UNLV | 31-39 | 1560.4 | -17.1 | 1543.3 | 55.4% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Virginia Tech | 25-20 | 1543.3 | +20.2 | 1563.4 | 21.8% |