| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | App State | 11-34 | 1368.6 | -69.3 | 1299.3 | 35.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | North Carolina | 3-20 | 1299.3 | -34.6 | 1264.7 | 21.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Monmouth | 42-35 | 1264.7 | -3.9 | 1260.8 | 63.1% |
| 5 | Sep 18 2025 | L | Rice | 17-28 | 1260.8 | -14.0 | 1246.8 | 26.4% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | South Florida | 26-54 | 1244.8 | -7.2 | 1237.6 | 5.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Army | 7-24 | 1237.6 | +14.3 | 1251.9 | 12.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Temple | 14-49 | 1251.9 | -46.2 | 1205.7 | 18.4% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | L | North Texas | 20-54 | 1205.7 | -10.1 | 1195.6 | 4.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | East Carolina | 22-48 | 1195.5 | +11.2 | 1206.7 | 4.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | UTSA | 7-28 | 1206.7 | -7.1 | 1199.6 | 9.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Georgia | 3-35 | 1199.6 | +26.8 | 1226.4 | 0.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Tulane | 0-27 | 1226.4 | +2.2 | 1228.6 | 6.6% |