| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | W | Georgia Tech | 14-13 | 1565.0 | +47.9 | 1612.9 | 44.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Weber State | 52-21 | 1612.9 | +9.1 | 1622.0 | 90.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Northwestern | 7-41 | 1622.0 | -43.8 | 1578.2 | 36.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Baylor | 13-23 | 1578.2 | +4.9 | 1583.1 | 26.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Texas Tech | 7-29 | 1583.1 | -2.3 | 1580.8 | 12.4% |