| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Georgia Tech | 20-27 | 1582.2 | -47.8 | 1534.4 | 48.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Delaware | 31-7 | 1534.4 | +31.8 | 1566.2 | 54.9% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | L | Houston | 20-36 | 1566.2 | -45.7 | 1520.5 | 61.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Wyoming | 37-20 | 1520.5 | +20.8 | 1541.3 | 69.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | BYU | 21-24 | 1541.3 | -25.9 | 1515.4 | 24.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | TCU | 21-35 | 1515.4 | -17.3 | 1498.1 | 26.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Iowa State | 24-17 | 1498.1 | +63.1 | 1561.2 | 20.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Utah | 7-53 | 1561.2 | -28.5 | 1532.7 | 41.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Arizona | 17-52 | 1532.7 | -53.3 | 1479.4 | 55.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | West Virginia | 22-29 | 1479.4 | -35.7 | 1443.7 | 49.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Arizona State | 17-42 | 1443.7 | -16.4 | 1427.3 | 14.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Kansas State | 14-24 | 1427.3 | -18.3 | 1409.0 | 27.4% |