| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | L | Stanford | 27-37 | 1431.5 | +26.7 | 1458.2 | 44.5% |
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | L | UNLV | 6-21 | 1431.5 | +26.7 | 1458.2 | 23.0% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | W | New Mexico State | 29-19 | 1458.2 | -3.2 | 1455.1 | 65.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Wyoming | 10-27 | 1452.5 | -22.0 | 1430.5 | 65.9% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | L | San José State | 16-20 | 1430.5 | -4.6 | 1426.0 | 50.1% |
| 6 | Oct 11 2026 | L | Arizona State | 12-30 | 1426.0 | -5.3 | 1420.7 | 15.8% |