| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Stanford | 23-20 | 1551.3 | -94.7 | 1456.6 | 45.6% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Arizona | 6-40 | 1456.6 | -70.3 | 1386.3 | 24.2% |
| 3 | Sep 7 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 37-20 | 1386.3 | +54.0 | 1440.3 | 51.0% |
| 4 | Sep 14 2025 | W | Portland State | 23-3 | 1440.3 | +3.6 | 1443.9 | 81.3% |
| 5 | Sep 21 2025 | L | Fresno State | 21-23 | 1443.9 | +2.2 | 1446.1 | 25.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Air Force | 44-35 | 1446.1 | +24.0 | 1470.1 | 43.8% |
| 8 | Oct 12 2025 | W | Utah State | 44-26 | 1462.2 | +39.5 | 1501.7 | 31.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Colorado State | 31-19 | 1501.7 | +28.4 | 1530.1 | 48.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | San José State | 38-45 | 1516.5 | -3.4 | 1513.1 | 51.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | San Diego State | 38-6 | 1513.1 | +67.9 | 1581.0 | 24.2% |
| 14 | Nov 21 2025 | L | UNLV | 10-38 | 1578.5 | -41.0 | 1537.5 | 43.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Wyoming | 27-7 | 1537.5 | +18.7 | 1556.2 | 61.0% |
| 19 | Dec 24 2025 | W | California | 35-31 | 1548.5 | +5.7 | 1554.2 | 42.9% |