| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | W | UAB | 42-23 | 1663.6 | +47.2 | 1710.8 | 88.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Duke | 27-31 | 1710.8 | -34.7 | 1676.1 | 59.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Southern Illinois | 48-10 | 1676.1 | +21.5 | 1697.6 | 93.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Ohio State | 19-42 | 1697.6 | -14.7 | 1682.9 | 11.7% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Purdue | 17-24 | 1682.9 | -34.2 | 1648.7 | 77.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Michigan State | 38-37 | 1648.7 | +9.8 | 1658.5 | 60.6% |