| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Western Illinois | 52-3 | 1818.2 | +27.4 | 1845.6 | 98.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Duke | 45-19 | 1845.6 | +66.4 | 1912.0 | 71.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 38-0 | 1912.0 | +40.1 | 1952.1 | 92.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Indiana | 10-63 | 1952.1 | -116.0 | 1836.1 | 37.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | USC | 34-32 | 1836.1 | +33.7 | 1869.8 | 26.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Purdue | 43-27 | 1869.8 | +19.5 | 1889.3 | 81.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Ohio State | 16-34 | 1889.3 | -3.0 | 1886.3 | 16.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Washington | 25-42 | 1882.6 | -26.7 | 1855.9 | 46.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Rutgers | 35-13 | 1855.9 | +24.5 | 1880.4 | 71.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Maryland | 24-6 | 1876.6 | +5.1 | 1881.7 | 77.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 10-27 | 1881.7 | -38.0 | 1843.7 | 74.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Northwestern | 20-13 | 1843.7 | -5.2 | 1838.5 | 65.5% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | W | Tennessee | 30-28 | 1843.1 | +7.6 | 1850.7 | 39.7% |