| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Western Illinois | 52-3 | 1750.5 | +0.0 | 1750.5 | 80.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Duke | 45-19 | 1750.5 | +38.5 | 1789.0 | 62.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 38-0 | 1789.0 | +2.2 | 1791.2 | 96.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Indiana | 10-63 | 1791.2 | -43.5 | 1747.7 | 59.0% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | USC | 34-32 | 1747.7 | +33.9 | 1781.6 | 52.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Purdue | 43-27 | 1781.6 | +7.8 | 1789.4 | 93.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Ohio State | 16-34 | 1789.4 | -15.3 | 1774.1 | 13.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Washington | 25-42 | 1774.1 | -40.6 | 1733.5 | 55.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Rutgers | 35-13 | 1733.5 | +16.7 | 1750.2 | 74.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Maryland | 24-6 | 1750.2 | +7.9 | 1758.1 | 87.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 10-27 | 1758.1 | -63.6 | 1694.5 | 80.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Northwestern | 20-13 | 1694.5 | +23.3 | 1717.8 | 65.9% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | W | Tennessee | 30-28 | 1717.8 | +46.3 | 1764.1 | 45.6% |