| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Maine | 28-7 | 1495.0 | +3.7 | 1498.7 | 89.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 24-34 | 1498.7 | -8.0 | 1490.7 | 38.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Bowling Green | 13-23 | 1490.7 | -28.0 | 1462.7 | 50.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | James Madison | 13-31 | 1462.7 | -28.0 | 1434.7 | 23.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 7-21 | 1434.7 | +5.1 | 1439.8 | 13.8% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | W | UTEP | 19-8 | 1441.9 | +7.9 | 1449.8 | 63.4% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 30-27 | 1449.8 | -14.7 | 1435.1 | 68.9% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Delaware | 59-30 | 1428.0 | +45.2 | 1473.2 | 57.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Missouri State | 17-21 | 1473.2 | -17.3 | 1455.9 | 63.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Florida International | 27-34 | 1455.9 | -9.7 | 1446.2 | 63.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 28-34 | 1446.2 | -5.3 | 1440.9 | 47.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 42-48 | 1440.9 | -6.3 | 1434.6 | 49.5% |