| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | James Madison | 13-20 | 1571.0 | -19.4 | 1551.6 | 22.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Gardner-Webb | 24-23 | 1551.6 | -19.1 | 1532.5 | 86.3% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Ball State | 51-15 | 1532.5 | +17.4 | 1549.9 | 71.1% |
| 4 | Sep 24 2026 | W | Coastal Carolina | 34-17 | 1549.9 | +17.9 | 1567.9 | 55.4% |
| 5 | Oct 2 2026 | W | Delaware | 30-14 | 1567.9 | +13.0 | 1580.8 | 65.4% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | W | Sam Houston | 35-3 | 1580.8 | +15.6 | 1596.4 | 74.3% |