| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Maine | 28-7 | 1487.7 | +0.0 | 1487.7 | 48.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 24-34 | 1487.7 | -35.4 | 1452.3 | 49.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Bowling Green | 13-23 | 1452.3 | -48.4 | 1403.9 | 64.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | James Madison | 13-31 | 1403.9 | -31.9 | 1372.0 | 30.5% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 7-21 | 1372.0 | -24.0 | 1348.0 | 35.0% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | W | UTEP | 19-8 | 1348.0 | +22.0 | 1370.0 | 79.7% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 30-27 | 1370.0 | +23.4 | 1393.4 | 65.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Delaware | 59-30 | 1393.4 | +41.4 | 1434.8 | 43.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Missouri State | 17-21 | 1434.8 | -39.4 | 1395.4 | 38.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Florida International | 27-34 | 1395.4 | -53.2 | 1342.2 | 69.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 28-34 | 1342.2 | -47.5 | 1294.7 | 63.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 42-48 | 1294.7 | -30.4 | 1264.3 | 28.8% |