| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 39-7 | 1668.5 | +55.1 | 1723.6 | 84.7% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 20-9 | 1723.6 | -2.3 | 1721.3 | 81.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Towson | 44-17 | 1721.3 | -11.4 | 1709.9 | 95.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 27-10 | 1709.9 | +55.0 | 1764.9 | 42.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Washington | 20-24 | 1758.8 | +3.8 | 1762.6 | 29.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Nebraska | 31-34 | 1762.6 | +0.1 | 1762.7 | 28.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | UCLA | 17-20 | 1762.7 | -27.6 | 1735.1 | 62.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Indiana | 10-55 | 1738.3 | -49.1 | 1689.2 | 6.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Rutgers | 20-35 | 1689.2 | -28.6 | 1660.6 | 50.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Illinois | 6-24 | 1660.6 | -2.4 | 1658.2 | 22.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Michigan | 20-45 | 1658.2 | -25.5 | 1632.7 | 18.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Michigan State | 28-38 | 1632.7 | -17.3 | 1615.4 | 46.5% |