| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Buffalo | 23-10 | 1854.3 | -38.1 | 1816.2 | 90.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Northwestern State | 66-0 | 1816.2 | +56.1 | 1872.3 | 99.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | California | 14-27 | 1872.3 | -87.1 | 1785.2 | 76.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Rutgers | 31-28 | 1762.7 | +14.1 | 1776.8 | 47.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Ohio State | 3-42 | 1776.8 | -51.1 | 1725.7 | 10.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Purdue | 27-20 | 1725.7 | +0.5 | 1726.2 | 66.4% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | W | Nebraska | 24-6 | 1726.2 | +43.8 | 1770.0 | 26.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Iowa | 3-41 | 1770.0 | -52.6 | 1717.4 | 27.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Michigan State | 23-20 | 1717.4 | -0.7 | 1716.7 | 62.6% |
| 13 | Nov 14 2025 | L | Oregon | 13-42 | 1722.5 | -14.2 | 1708.3 | 9.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Northwestern | 35-38 | 1708.3 | +0.4 | 1708.7 | 46.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 17-7 | 1708.7 | +19.5 | 1728.2 | 45.1% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | W | New Mexico | 20-17 | 1733.0 | -6.3 | 1726.7 | 71.4% |