| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | W | Eastern Illinois | 59-7 | 1638.4 | +58.9 | 1697.2 | 98.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Mississippi State | 13-38 | 1697.2 | -66.2 | 1631.0 | 49.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Akron | 41-7 | 1631.0 | +42.4 | 1673.4 | 87.4% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | W | Washington | 27-24 | 1673.4 | -9.4 | 1664.0 | 40.8% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Michigan | 20-14 | 1664.0 | -1.2 | 1662.8 | 38.7% |
| 6 | Oct 11 2026 | L | Purdue | 13-41 | 1662.8 | -39.2 | 1623.6 | 68.7% |