| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Buffalo | 23-10 | 1660.3 | +14.5 | 1674.8 | 78.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Northwestern State | 66-0 | 1674.8 | +0.0 | 1674.8 | 73.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | California | 14-27 | 1674.8 | -55.1 | 1619.7 | 71.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Rutgers | 31-28 | 1619.7 | +30.6 | 1650.3 | 56.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Ohio State | 3-42 | 1650.3 | -4.3 | 1646.0 | 6.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Purdue | 27-20 | 1646.0 | +8.5 | 1654.5 | 86.7% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | W | Nebraska | 24-6 | 1654.5 | +31.4 | 1685.9 | 55.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Iowa | 3-41 | 1685.9 | -30.6 | 1655.3 | 43.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Michigan State | 23-20 | 1655.3 | +13.6 | 1668.9 | 79.2% |
| 13 | Nov 14 2025 | L | Oregon | 13-42 | 1668.9 | -8.3 | 1660.6 | 13.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Northwestern | 35-38 | 1660.6 | -51.8 | 1608.8 | 68.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 17-7 | 1608.8 | +32.2 | 1641.0 | 54.4% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | W | New Mexico | 20-17 | 1641.0 | +32.1 | 1673.1 | 62.3% |