| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 20-17 | 1802.6 | -3.8 | 1798.8 | 60.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Akron | 68-0 | 1798.8 | +138.1 | 1936.9 | 94.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Houston Christian | 59-7 | 1936.9 | +18.6 | 1955.5 | 99.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Michigan | 27-30 | 1955.5 | -7.9 | 1947.6 | 47.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Michigan State | 38-27 | 1940.2 | -13.5 | 1926.7 | 81.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Maryland | 34-31 | 1926.7 | -24.3 | 1902.4 | 72.0% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | L | Minnesota | 6-24 | 1902.4 | -49.8 | 1852.6 | 73.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Northwestern | 28-21 | 1852.6 | -4.3 | 1848.3 | 65.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | USC | 17-21 | 1848.3 | -7.5 | 1840.8 | 29.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | UCLA | 28-21 | 1840.8 | +0.9 | 1841.7 | 74.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Penn State | 10-37 | 1834.7 | -31.0 | 1803.7 | 33.5% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Iowa | 16-40 | 1803.7 | -30.5 | 1773.2 | 29.1% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | L | Utah | 22-44 | 1776.4 | -20.2 | 1756.2 | 20.5% |