| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Ohio | 49-21 | 1773.3 | -9.1 | 1764.2 | 92.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Bowling Green | 56-7 | 1764.2 | -3.5 | 1760.6 | 96.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | North Dakota | 34-7 | 1760.6 | -13.7 | 1747.0 | 96.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Michigan State | 31-13 | 1747.0 | +25.8 | 1772.8 | 65.8% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Maryland | 48-23 | 1772.8 | -0.1 | 1772.7 | 81.0% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Indiana | 17-20 | 1772.7 | +4.8 | 1777.5 | 23.8% |