| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Montana State | 59-13 | 1983.1 | +31.1 | 2014.2 | 98.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 69-3 | 2014.2 | +144.8 | 2159.0 | 90.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Northwestern | 34-14 | 2159.0 | -19.0 | 2140.0 | 95.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Oregon State | 41-7 | 2140.0 | -25.0 | 2115.0 | 98.0% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Penn State | 30-24 | 2115.0 | +9.6 | 2124.6 | 63.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Indiana | 20-30 | 2113.8 | -30.1 | 2083.7 | 44.2% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Rutgers | 56-10 | 2083.7 | +67.9 | 2151.6 | 86.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 21-7 | 2151.6 | -27.2 | 2124.4 | 95.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Iowa | 18-16 | 2126.0 | -6.6 | 2119.4 | 69.1% |
| 13 | Nov 14 2025 | W | Minnesota | 42-13 | 2119.4 | +8.2 | 2127.6 | 90.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | USC | 42-27 | 2127.6 | +11.8 | 2139.4 | 67.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Washington | 26-14 | 2139.4 | +10.0 | 2149.4 | 73.5% |
| 18 | Dec 20 2025 | W | James Madison | 51-34 | 2148.5 | -2.7 | 2145.8 | 83.7% |
| 20 | Jan 1 2026 | W | Texas Tech | 23-0 | 2144.1 | +31.9 | 2176.0 | 50.3% |
| 21 | Jan 9 2026 | L | Indiana | 22-56 | 2176.0 | -48.8 | 2127.2 | 37.6% |