| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Boise State | 34-27 | 1841.9 | -5.2 | 1836.7 | 79.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Oklahoma State | 31-39 | 1836.7 | -92.2 | 1744.5 | 97.0% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Portland State | 84-0 | 1744.5 | +76.9 | 1821.4 | 98.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | USC | 41-27 | 1821.4 | +29.9 | 1851.3 | 67.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | UCLA | 15-17 | 1852.2 | -15.4 | 1836.8 | 71.6% |