| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | W | Indiana State | 44-19 | 1648.9 | -73.3 | 1575.7 | 95.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Wake Forest | 36-38 | 1575.7 | -13.0 | 1562.6 | 41.1% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | L | UCLA | 38-52 | 1562.6 | +1.6 | 1564.3 | 24.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Notre Dame | 10-49 | 1564.3 | -9.2 | 1555.1 | 4.2% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Illinois | 24-17 | 1555.1 | +46.3 | 1601.4 | 23.0% |
| 6 | Oct 11 2026 | W | Minnesota | 41-13 | 1601.4 | +52.0 | 1653.4 | 31.3% |