| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Ball State | 31-0 | 1320.7 | +23.1 | 1343.8 | 66.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Southern Illinois | 34-17 | 1343.8 | +0.0 | 1343.8 | 28.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | USC | 17-33 | 1343.8 | -12.7 | 1331.1 | 11.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 30-56 | 1331.1 | -3.6 | 1327.5 | 5.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Illinois | 27-43 | 1327.5 | -7.8 | 1319.7 | 6.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Minnesota | 20-27 | 1319.7 | -8.5 | 1311.2 | 13.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Northwestern | 0-19 | 1311.2 | -11.1 | 1300.1 | 17.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Rutgers | 24-27 | 1300.1 | -23.8 | 1276.3 | 22.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Michigan | 16-21 | 1276.3 | -2.0 | 1274.3 | 3.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Ohio State | 10-34 | 1274.3 | -0.8 | 1273.5 | 0.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Washington | 13-49 | 1273.5 | -4.9 | 1268.6 | 7.7% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Indiana | 3-56 | 1268.6 | -2.5 | 1266.1 | 2.2% |