| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 2026 | L | Massachusetts | 21-37 | 1566.1 | -105.2 | 1460.9 | 85.5% |
| 2 | Sep 11 2026 | L | Boston College | 21-28 | 1460.9 | +42.7 | 1503.6 | 46.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | USC | 35-42 | 1503.6 | +20.2 | 1523.8 | 8.5% |
| 4 | Sep 25 2026 | W | Howard | 58-7 | 1523.8 | +39.8 | 1563.6 | 95.6% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | L | Indiana | 15-47 | 1563.6 | -15.2 | 1548.4 | 5.9% |