| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 42-10 | 1377.6 | +127.6 | 1505.2 | 56.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Howard | 55-7 | 1505.2 | +59.9 | 1565.1 | 95.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Oklahoma | 3-42 | 1565.1 | -78.7 | 1486.4 | 12.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Georgia Tech | 24-45 | 1486.4 | -1.8 | 1484.6 | 11.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | UTSA | 27-21 | 1481.6 | +18.5 | 1500.1 | 35.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Navy | 31-32 | 1500.1 | +10.6 | 1510.7 | 29.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Charlotte | 49-14 | 1510.7 | +47.5 | 1558.2 | 81.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Tulsa | 38-37 | 1558.2 | -20.2 | 1538.0 | 77.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | East Carolina | 14-45 | 1538.0 | -50.0 | 1488.0 | 31.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Army | 13-14 | 1488.0 | +1.0 | 1489.0 | 36.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Tulane | 13-37 | 1489.5 | -30.1 | 1459.4 | 27.5% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | North Texas | 25-52 | 1459.4 | -9.2 | 1450.2 | 12.2% |