| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Rhode Island | 38-14 | 1510.1 | -17.1 | 1493.0 | 89.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Penn State | 9-27 | 1493.0 | +18.4 | 1511.4 | 4.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Toledo | 48-49 | 1511.4 | +40.0 | 1551.4 | 27.0% |
| 4 | Sep 25 2026 | L | Army | 17-21 | 1551.4 | -7.5 | 1543.9 | 28.8% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | South Florida | 17-13 | 1543.9 | +14.0 | 1557.9 | 33.2% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | UConn | 20-34 | 1557.9 | -28.5 | 1529.4 | 43.7% |