| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Michigan State | 20-30 | 1550.6 | +2.2 | 1552.8 | 35.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Central Connecticut | 63-10 | 1552.8 | +26.9 | 1579.7 | 98.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Temple | 49-48 | 1579.7 | -22.9 | 1556.8 | 73.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | San Diego State | 41-16 | 1556.8 | +43.6 | 1600.4 | 56.3% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Ball State | 39-24 | 1600.4 | -12.5 | 1587.9 | 95.4% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Buffalo | 8-23 | 1587.9 | -62.9 | 1525.0 | 91.8% |