| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Kentucky | 16-24 | 1529.7 | +25.8 | 1555.5 | 20.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Western Kentucky | 45-21 | 1555.5 | +77.4 | 1632.9 | 51.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Morgan State | 60-0 | 1632.9 | +77.3 | 1710.2 | 97.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 13-14 | 1710.2 | -39.2 | 1671.0 | 81.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Akron | 45-3 | 1671.0 | +42.8 | 1713.8 | 90.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Bowling Green | 23-28 | 1713.9 | -31.8 | 1682.1 | 78.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Kent State | 45-10 | 1682.1 | -1.2 | 1680.9 | 94.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Washington State | 7-28 | 1680.9 | -44.3 | 1636.6 | 59.1% |
| 12 | Nov 5 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 42-3 | 1631.7 | +49.2 | 1680.9 | 78.4% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 24-3 | 1680.9 | +36.3 | 1717.2 | 66.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Ball State | 38-9 | 1717.2 | +3.3 | 1720.5 | 93.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 21-3 | 1720.5 | +4.5 | 1725.0 | 83.8% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | L | Louisville | 22-27 | 1722.6 | -3.6 | 1719.0 | 33.0% |