| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Oklahoma State | 24-10 | 1507.4 | -89.0 | 1418.3 | 19.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Sam Houston | 23-17 | 1418.3 | +68.8 | 1487.2 | 72.8% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | East Texas A&M | 42-0 | 1487.2 | +48.1 | 1535.3 | 92.7% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | Arkansas | 6-34 | 1535.3 | -34.6 | 1500.7 | 41.2% |
| 5 | Oct 2 2026 | L | North Texas | 44-45 | 1500.7 | +25.0 | 1525.6 | 24.1% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Navy | 26-34 | 1525.6 | -7.6 | 1518.0 | 46.9% |