| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Abilene Christian | 35-7 | 1313.9 | +82.1 | 1396.0 | 62.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | New Mexico State | 14-21 | 1396.0 | -33.4 | 1362.6 | 64.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Navy | 23-42 | 1362.6 | -13.0 | 1349.6 | 12.2% |
| 5 | Sep 19 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 19-12 | 1349.6 | +39.1 | 1388.7 | 34.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Tulane | 14-31 | 1388.7 | -16.2 | 1372.5 | 17.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Memphis | 7-45 | 1372.5 | -33.1 | 1339.4 | 9.9% |
| 9 | Oct 16 2025 | L | East Carolina | 27-41 | 1334.3 | +8.2 | 1342.5 | 11.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Temple | 37-38 | 1342.5 | +11.5 | 1354.0 | 22.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Florida Atlantic | 21-40 | 1348.9 | -28.9 | 1320.0 | 45.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Oregon State | 31-14 | 1320.0 | +40.5 | 1360.5 | 32.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Army | 26-25 | 1360.5 | +21.6 | 1382.1 | 22.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | UAB | 24-31 | 1382.1 | -20.2 | 1361.9 | 56.5% |