| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Abilene Christian | 35-7 | 1114.5 | +0.0 | 1114.5 | 9.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | New Mexico State | 14-21 | 1114.5 | -23.3 | 1091.2 | 34.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Navy | 23-42 | 1091.2 | -5.2 | 1086.0 | 4.6% |
| 5 | Sep 19 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 19-12 | 1086.0 | +76.4 | 1162.4 | 13.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Tulane | 14-31 | 1162.4 | -6.3 | 1156.1 | 5.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Memphis | 7-45 | 1156.1 | -2.0 | 1154.1 | 3.2% |
| 9 | Oct 16 2025 | L | East Carolina | 27-41 | 1154.1 | -8.9 | 1145.2 | 13.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Temple | 37-38 | 1145.2 | -28.7 | 1116.5 | 27.1% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Florida Atlantic | 21-40 | 1116.5 | -27.0 | 1089.5 | 38.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Oregon State | 31-14 | 1089.5 | +54.9 | 1144.4 | 28.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Army | 26-25 | 1144.4 | +80.2 | 1224.6 | 7.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | UAB | 24-31 | 1224.6 | -54.3 | 1170.3 | 56.4% |