| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | California | 45-24 | 1780.1 | -98.1 | 1682.0 | 88.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | San Diego State | 28-10 | 1682.0 | +40.4 | 1722.4 | 61.6% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | Purdue | 52-38 | 1722.4 | -18.9 | 1703.5 | 76.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Maryland | 54-3 | 1703.5 | +84.2 | 1787.7 | 46.6% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Oregon | 17-15 | 1787.0 | +10.0 | 1797.0 | 28.4% |