| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Utah | 10-43 | 1735.4 | -143.3 | 1592.1 | 52.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | UNLV | 23-30 | 1592.1 | +2.6 | 1594.7 | 45.0% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | L | New Mexico | 10-35 | 1594.7 | -95.6 | 1499.1 | 70.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Northwestern | 14-17 | 1490.3 | +33.7 | 1524.0 | 32.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Penn State | 42-37 | 1524.0 | +78.6 | 1602.6 | 5.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Michigan State | 38-13 | 1602.6 | +74.4 | 1677.0 | 38.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Maryland | 20-17 | 1677.0 | +9.5 | 1686.5 | 37.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Indiana | 6-56 | 1686.5 | -33.7 | 1652.8 | 6.1% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Nebraska | 21-28 | 1653.0 | +1.1 | 1654.1 | 25.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Ohio State | 10-48 | 1654.1 | -12.1 | 1642.0 | 3.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Washington | 14-48 | 1642.0 | -30.6 | 1611.4 | 16.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | USC | 10-29 | 1611.4 | +5.6 | 1617.0 | 10.1% |