| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Idaho State | 38-31 | 1573.6 | +14.9 | 1588.5 | 84.5% |
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 38-21 | 1588.5 | +38.5 | 1627.0 | 75.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UCLA | 30-23 | 1627.0 | +0.9 | 1627.9 | 55.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 41-38 | 1617.2 | -11.2 | 1606.0 | 66.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Wyoming | 31-17 | 1620.0 | +31.0 | 1651.0 | 67.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Air Force | 51-48 | 1651.0 | -6.4 | 1644.6 | 72.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Boise State | 31-56 | 1644.6 | -37.2 | 1607.4 | 33.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | New Mexico | 35-40 | 1614.3 | -36.6 | 1577.7 | 58.4% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Colorado State | 42-10 | 1577.7 | +57.6 | 1635.3 | 68.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Utah State | 29-26 | 1635.3 | -12.4 | 1622.9 | 59.3% |
| 14 | Nov 21 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 38-10 | 1622.9 | +38.8 | 1661.7 | 56.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Nevada | 42-17 | 1661.7 | +22.5 | 1684.2 | 79.3% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | Boise State | 21-38 | 1684.2 | -18.8 | 1665.4 | 43.1% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | L | Ohio | 10-17 | 1660.0 | -16.6 | 1643.4 | 60.6% |