| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 2026 | L | Memphis | 21-27 | 1557.4 | +25.7 | 1583.0 | 34.3% |
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Hawai'i | 21-6 | 1557.4 | +25.7 | 1583.0 | 77.0% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | North Texas | 6-44 | 1583.0 | -53.6 | 1529.4 | 44.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Akron | 38-10 | 1520.5 | +51.2 | 1571.8 | 67.4% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | California | 39-31 | 1571.8 | +0.5 | 1572.3 | 44.6% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | North Dakota State | 13-7 | 1572.3 | +1.9 | 1574.2 | 39.4% |