| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Portland State | 69-0 | 1869.8 | +119.2 | 1989.0 | 98.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Stanford | 27-3 | 1989.0 | -12.8 | 1976.2 | 94.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | East Carolina | 34-13 | 1989.0 | +19.6 | 2008.6 | 83.0% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Colorado | 24-21 | 2008.6 | -24.3 | 1984.3 | 83.5% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | West Virginia | 38-24 | 1984.3 | -30.8 | 1953.5 | 91.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Arizona | 33-27 | 1953.5 | -2.9 | 1950.6 | 75.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Utah | 24-21 | 1950.6 | +0.2 | 1950.8 | 46.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Iowa State | 41-27 | 1950.8 | +23.0 | 1973.8 | 62.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 7-29 | 1981.2 | -31.6 | 1949.6 | 40.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | TCU | 44-13 | 1949.6 | +42.2 | 1991.8 | 67.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 26-14 | 1991.8 | +3.9 | 1995.7 | 74.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UCF | 41-21 | 1995.7 | +0.2 | 1995.9 | 87.0% |
| 16 | Dec 6 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 7-34 | 1995.9 | -31.3 | 1964.6 | 31.6% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Georgia Tech | 25-21 | 1961.8 | -8.0 | 1953.8 | 73.1% |