| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Portland State | 69-0 | 1714.9 | +0.0 | 1714.9 | 77.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Stanford | 27-3 | 1714.9 | +5.1 | 1720.0 | 91.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | East Carolina | 34-13 | 1720.0 | +19.5 | 1739.5 | 82.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Colorado | 24-21 | 1739.5 | +25.9 | 1765.4 | 75.8% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | West Virginia | 38-24 | 1765.4 | +10.7 | 1776.1 | 83.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Arizona | 33-27 | 1776.1 | +23.7 | 1799.8 | 78.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Utah | 24-21 | 1799.8 | +19.5 | 1819.3 | 71.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Iowa State | 41-27 | 1819.3 | +31.7 | 1851.0 | 69.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 7-29 | 1851.0 | -48.8 | 1802.2 | 64.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | TCU | 44-13 | 1802.2 | +20.0 | 1822.2 | 70.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Cincinnati | 26-14 | 1822.2 | +19.5 | 1841.7 | 82.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UCF | 41-21 | 1841.7 | +4.6 | 1846.3 | 92.6% |
| 16 | Dec 6 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 7-34 | 1846.3 | -46.2 | 1800.1 | 54.4% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Georgia Tech | 25-21 | 1800.1 | +25.0 | 1825.1 | 70.5% |