| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Stanford | 23-20 | 1500.3 | -147.1 | 1353.2 | 65.5% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Arizona | 6-40 | 1353.2 | -21.6 | 1331.6 | 31.8% |
| 3 | Sep 7 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 37-20 | 1331.6 | +52.5 | 1384.1 | 31.2% |
| 4 | Sep 14 2025 | W | Portland State | 23-3 | 1384.1 | +0.0 | 1384.1 | 33.9% |
| 5 | Sep 21 2025 | L | Fresno State | 21-23 | 1384.1 | -38.7 | 1345.4 | 37.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Air Force | 44-35 | 1345.4 | +52.1 | 1397.5 | 46.4% |
| 8 | Oct 12 2025 | W | Utah State | 44-26 | 1397.5 | +33.2 | 1430.7 | 53.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Colorado State | 31-19 | 1430.7 | +39.2 | 1469.9 | 61.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | San José State | 38-45 | 1469.9 | -57.1 | 1412.8 | 73.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | San Diego State | 38-6 | 1412.8 | +43.4 | 1456.2 | 41.1% |
| 14 | Nov 21 2025 | L | UNLV | 10-38 | 1456.2 | -17.2 | 1439.0 | 25.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Wyoming | 27-7 | 1439.0 | +16.9 | 1455.9 | 74.5% |
| 19 | Dec 24 2025 | W | California | 35-31 | 1455.9 | +45.0 | 1500.9 | 39.4% |