| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Lamar | 38-7 | 1532.3 | -18.0 | 1514.3 | 95.1% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | L | USC | 30-49 | 1514.3 | -19.7 | 1494.5 | 7.6% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | UAB | 21-14 | 1494.5 | +4.3 | 1498.9 | 67.5% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Charlotte | 34-7 | 1498.9 | +44.9 | 1543.8 | 75.6% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | W | Arkansas State | 23-20 | 1543.8 | -33.8 | 1510.0 | 75.3% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Louisiana Tech | 31-32 | 1510.0 | +14.7 | 1524.7 | 42.1% |