| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Rice | 12-14 | 1559.2 | -29.3 | 1529.9 | 58.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | McNeese | 34-10 | 1529.9 | -22.3 | 1507.6 | 94.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Missouri | 10-52 | 1507.6 | -51.4 | 1456.2 | 7.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Eastern Michigan | 31-34 | 1456.2 | -34.9 | 1421.3 | 77.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Marshall | 54-51 | 1421.3 | +17.5 | 1438.8 | 31.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | James Madison | 14-24 | 1439.6 | +17.5 | 1457.1 | 18.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 10-22 | 1457.1 | -24.8 | 1432.3 | 55.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Troy | 23-35 | 1432.3 | +0.4 | 1432.7 | 32.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | South Alabama | 31-22 | 1432.7 | +22.0 | 1454.7 | 45.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Texas State | 42-39 | 1454.7 | +9.8 | 1464.5 | 36.9% |
| 14 | Nov 20 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 34-30 | 1471.2 | +5.4 | 1476.6 | 54.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 30-27 | 1476.6 | -15.6 | 1461.0 | 79.3% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | L | Delaware | 13-20 | 1463.8 | -21.2 | 1442.6 | 68.1% |